Washington’s High-Earner Migration Debate

Washington’s tax climate continues to shape conversations about business growth, investment, and economic competitiveness.

In this commentary, Washington Policy Center’s Mark Harmsworth responds to claims that Washington’s capital gains and income tax policies are not driving meaningful migration among high earners. He argues that overall population and tax-filer counts do not tell the full story.

Citing IRS migration data and analyses from SmartAsset, the National Taxpayers Union Foundation, and Texas A&M University, Harmsworth points to a pattern in which Washington gains households while losing adjusted gross income. According to the article, this may indicate that departing households have higher average incomes than those moving into the state.

The commentary also highlights recent moves by prominent individuals and businesses to lower-tax states. Harmsworth argues that strong capital gains tax collections in a given year do not necessarily rule out longer-term effects on business activity, employment, philanthropy, or the state’s future tax base.

Migration decisions are complex and can reflect housing costs, employment, family considerations, remote work, weather, and taxes. The article does not claim that taxes are the sole cause of relocation. Instead, it challenges the conclusion that high-earner out-migration is absent or economically insignificant.

Members can read the full Washington Policy Center commentary for its detailed arguments, supporting sources, and point-by-point response.